chanel now: 十一月 2013

2013年11月21日星期四

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is here, all 1,990 pages of it.fake uggs I’m still trying to figure it out. But from the early details I’ve seen, it strikes me that the real news here is not the public option, but rather, the decision to expand Medicaid eligibility all the way up to 150% of poverty. That’s a significant increase from earlier versions, which went to 133%. Both versions also would make the program a truly income-based one for the first time.gucci handbag for sale
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As I noted earlier, the real surprise in the House health care bill wasn’t the public plan–we had pretty much known for days that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi didn’t have the votes to pass her preferred version, the so-called “robust” public plan, which would have closely tied its reimbursements to health care providers to Medicare’s rates (which can run 30% lower than what private insurance pays them).fake louis vuitton shoes So she had to settle for one that would operate in many ways like an insurance company, negotiating with hospitals and doctors and other health care providers, and paying them significantly more generous reimbursements. It was that decision, I am told, that led to the real news in the bill–a provision, inserted at the last minute, to drastically expand the Medicaid program, even beyond what had been anticipated in an earlier version of the legislation. Here’s what happened: Once the Speaker decided to go with the weaker version of the public option, she found herself with another problem. Because the weaker version saved less money, she would have to find $85 billion, so the bill’s 10-year price tag could come in under the $900-billion limit that President Obama had set.louis vuitton speedy One way to do that was to take 2.5 million people who would have been using government subisidies to buy insurance on the new “exchanges” that would be established under the bill, and shift them instead into the Medicaid program. So instead of setting the qualifications for Medicaid at 133% of poverty, as the legislation initially stipulated, the level was lifted to 150%. (In other words, where a family of four earning up to about $29,300 would have qualified for Medicaid under the initial version of the bill, the program now would accept a family earning up to about $33,000 a year).chanel outlet Either way, you are seeing a dramatic expansion of the program, which is administered jointly with the states. Currently, people in most states qualify not on the basis of income, but rather on a combination of income and some other criterion–such as being elderly, disabled, or pregnant. Single adults are generally excluded from Medicaid if they do not also fit one of these other categories. There are reasons to worry about the implications of putting millions of new people on the medicaid rolls.louis vuitton speedy Already, medicaid recipients in some parts of the country complain they cannot find doctors and other health care providers who are willing to accept the low reimbursements that medicaid pays. However, House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Henry Waxman told me that there are a number of provisions in the bill that would aim to assure more health care providers for medicaid recipients. One is a $12-billion expansion of the community health centers program, which would more than double its capacity over the next five years, to handle 38.6 million people.replica gucci shoes Another element of the legislation would boost the payments to primary care providers who accept medicaid patients, bringing their reimbursement rates in line with those paid by the medicare program. While Waxman acknowledged that his own preference had been to put more people into the health insurance exchanges, he insisted that the shift is “not a bad policy.” But one real fight ahead could be who will have to pay for all those new medicaid recipients. The House bill would have the federal government paying 100% of the costs for the first two years, and 91% of it after that.fake gucci shoes Under the legislation passed by the Senate Finance Committee, a far greater share would fall on the states–whose governors say their budgets could not take the additional strain.
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Roll Call takes a look at the annual disclosure forms.chanel outlet And while we won’t be playing violins for any of them, it does appear that the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committe might consider finding another financial planner.: Wealth in the chamber ranges from Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) ?? the richest Member of Congress overall ?? who tops the list with a minimum net worth of at least $167.fake louis vuitton shoes55 million, to Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), who registers a negative $40,000. Overall, the chamber claims a combined minimum net worth of nearly $651 million, or an average of about $6.fake louis vuitton64 million per Senator. The median value of the Senators registers at $1.06 million, falling between Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.louis vuitton handbags for sale) at a minimum net worth of $1 million and Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) at $1.12 million.fake ugg boots There do seem to be some extenuating personal circumstances here in Baucus’ case: Although Baucus ranks last in the chamber??s tally, District of Columbia property records show he sold his Georgetown home in late April for $2.1 million, shortly after he announced his divorce from his wife, Wanda. D.C.louis vuitton speedy property records also report Baucus purchased a new three-bedroom Capitol Hill home in June, now valued at $907,000. Baucus will not be required to reveal these transactions in next year??s filing. The only other Senator to report a negative net worth, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.louis vuitton shoes replica), also owns Capitol Hill property, according to public records. The Senator??s three-bedroom home is valued at more than $675,000. Even without the added value related to such major assets, however, 92 of those Senators reported net worth above that of typical American households. According to a U.louis vuitton handbags for saleS. Census Bureau report issued in 2008, the median net worth for households headed by 55- to 64-year-olds reached $133,000 ?? or just $34,000 excluding home equity ?? in 2002, the most recent data available. Not to mention, they all have a great health care plan.
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Turns out he??s on Capitol Hill! The General, as George W.louis vuitton neverfull Bush so famously called him, and Pakistani strong man is visiting the United States for an extended period of time. Eagle-eyed AFP correspondent Olivier Knox spotted him near Russell Senate Office Building this morning, coterie in tow. What??s he doing here? Apparently briefing Republican members on the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan at the invitation of Indiana Rep. Steve Buyer, the top Republican on the House Veterans Affairs Committee, Knox reports.chanel handbags for sale When asked about the meeting, Buyer??s office did not immediately return calls. The GOP leadership distanced themselves from it. ??I don??t know much about it,?? demurred Michael Steel, a spokesman for House Minority Leader John Boehner. Why play coy about meeting a former world leader? Well, this one happens to be wanted man at home.louis vuitton speedy Any one know if the U.S.
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2013年11月20日星期三

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This weekend, David Gregory flashed an image of my TIME cover story on the Latino vote in America.louis vuitton shoes replica Then he held a discussion with Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer and California Gov. Jerry Brown that perfectly demonstrated the central focus of my story: The inability of Republicans to talk about immigration in a way that welcomes Latino voters to the party of Lincoln. This is what Brewer said about Mexico, a state where one in four Arizona residents has family ties.cheap gucci belts The bottom line is we do need our border secured because we understand that Mexico is in terrible unrest and they’re–that the whole state of Mexico is being controlled by drug cartels and all of that crime is coming across our border and Arizona is the gateway.? Texas has done a very good job of securing their borders with the help of the federal government.? California has done a good job.? But we are the gateway and we are the recipients of our citizens being threatened by the drug cartels, living in fear, having to protect their property and their families, drop houses being in normally stable neighborhoods, prostitution, and the extortion of those illegal people that are coming that maybe possibly are coming to work, their families are being extorted, and they’re being tortured.louis vuitton replica This is what Brown said about the same problems in Mexico. Every President has tried to secure the border.? The fact is these drugs generate billions of dollars in profit, guns from America go down to Mexico, the dope comes up, the billions of dollars go down.? It takes a collaborative work, Mexico and the U.louis vuitton beltsS., we’ve got to invest in Mexico, we’ve got to give them all the tools that we can and work together to get rid of the cartels but build up Mexico so the employment can be there instead of forcing people across the border. Let us set policy aside. Just pay attention to the rhetoric.louis vuitton handbags for sale Brewer paints a picture of Mexico as a chaotic dystopia, a source of torture and prostitution, where “illegal people,” a phrase many Latinos see as pejorative, are preyed upon by drug dealers. “The whole state of Mexico is being controlled by drug cartels,” she says, a claim that is as factually false as it is rhetorically bold. Brown by contrast describes the same problem, but speaks of Mexico as a partner with the U.S.louis vuitton backpack for sale in a long struggle. Rather than dismissing the country as a fallen land, he speaks of the need for “collaborative” work, and of U.S. investment.replica gucci shoes (PHOTOS:?Being Latino in Arizona) Neither of these passages deal much with policy. But they send dramatically different messages to the roughly three in five American Latinos who have family ties in Mexico. And they explain the politics that have elected each of them. Brown would probably not be governor if it were not for the votes of citizens who have roots in Mexico.chanel handbags for sale Brewer is governor despite the votes of citizens who have roots in Mexico. The problem for Brewer, and the Republican Party in the Southwest, is that her path to victory is going to become harder, and Brown’s will become easier, simply because of demographics. This year, the number of Latino voters in Arizona is expected to grow 23% from 2008. This is not the end of a boom.fake louis vuitton It is far more likely to be the midway point, if not the beginning.
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If you’re betting on Tuesday’s Republican primaries in Michigan and Arizona, the smart play is to short the pundits.chanel handbags for sale For two months, each decree that a candidate possesses momentum has instead been a death knell. Mitt Romney entered South Carolina as the first nonincumbent GOP candidate in a generation to capture the first two contests and got clobbered by a guy who had twice been written off for dead. Newt Gingrich’s lunar lunacy in Florida repositioned Romney as the inevitable nominee, but the coronation was postponed by Rick Santorum’s three-state sweep on Feb. 7, a night everyone said didn’t matter ?? until it vaulted Santorum to the lead in national polls.louis vuitton outlet online For the past two weeks, the Feb. 28 primaries in Michigan and Arizona loomed as a pivotal inflection point, a test of Santorum’s improbable strength and Romney’s improbable weakness. But now that the heavyweight tussle in Michigan has arrived, we’re liable to learn nothing at all.? The high drama on Tuesday is whether Romney can avoid the ignominious distinction of losing his native state, a defeat that would highlight his struggle to court the party’s conservative base.louis vuitton replica Down by double digits in some polls two weeks ago, Romney and his allied super PAC erased the gap by painting Santorum as a spendthrift Washington insider. By late last week, Romney retook the lead. But both candidates have bumbled since. Santorum spent more time talking about notions of good and evil than about kitchen-table economics.gucci outlet online Romney’s economic message has been hampered by his habit of reminding voters in this recession-ravaged state of his vast wealth. While Arizona projects to be a comfortable win for Romney ?? he leads by an average of 13 points in polls conducted over the past nine days ?? Michigan may be up for grabs. Romney clings to slight leads in three of the five polls released Monday, while Santorum has an edge in two. (PHOTOS: Political Pictures of the Week, Feb.handbags louis vuitton 18??24) As in earlier states, Romney is pinning his hopes on racking up large margins in the state’s population hub. The former Massachusetts governor grew up in affluent Oakland County, just outside metro Detroit, and the area will be his wheelhouse. Santorum is banking on rural voters and conservative population centers in northern and western Michigan, like Kent County, home to Grand Rapids, and neighboring Ottawa County, a redoubt for religious conservatives that abuts Lake Michigan. Complicating matters is the presence of Ron Paul, who is drawing teeming crowds on the eve of the primary and could corral up to 15% of the vote,?partly from crossover voters in a de facto open primary, says Bill Ballenger, the editor of Inside Michigan Politics, a nonpartisan newsletter.fake gucci shoes “Romney is going to be hugely wounded if he loses,” Ballenger says. But whether the outcome is a loss may be subject to spin. Tuesday’s contest carries the specter of a split decision, in which one candidate wins the popular vote and another collects a majority of the state’s delegates, which are apportioned according to the winner in each congressional district. “It’s possible somebody could win statewide and lose nine out of 14 congressional districts,” Ballenger predicts.fake louis vuitton shoes (MORE: How Santorum’s Scolding Is Dooming His Campaign) This muddle is unlikely to produce a dramatic shift in the race; it is poised to drag on indefinitely no matter Tuesday’s results. Romney, Santorum and Gingrich are likely to divvy up the 10 states voting a week from now on Super Tuesday. Polls show Santorum with hefty leads in Ohio, Oklahoma and Tennessee, with Romney headed for a rout in Virginia and Massachusetts and Gingrich poised to scoop up his home state of Georgia ?? which could presage a resurgence as the contest turns back South. It’s possible, of course, that Romney notches a pair of comfortable wins and uses them as a springboard to a national surge.gucci handbag for sale But Romney has demonstrated a knack for stepping on his good fortune. The morning after his win in Florida, he coughed up his unfortunate gaffe about the “very poor,” and just as his fortunes brightened in Michigan, he started talking about his fleet of cars and NASCAR-owner friends. (MORE: Why Latino Voters Will Swing the 2012 Election) The irony of the Republican race is that a succession of rivals have risen on the argument that they’re not Romney, while Romney is at his best when he points out that he is not them. The former Massachusetts governor is far better at tearing down his antagonists than he is at selling himself, a fact that has raised his own negatives and put some of his supporters on edge.louis vuitton handbags for sale “People want to be uplifted,” Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell, a top Romney surrogate, told reporters Monday. “They want us to be positive, and I’d like to see more of that.” Not being Rick Santorum is no better justification for the Republican nomination than not being Mitt Romney. Which is why Michigan is less likely to reshape the race than reports have suggested.replica chanel shoes The only certainty in this turbulent primary season is that nobody knows what will happen next.
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For much of the past two weeks, as Rick Santorum’s candidacy star power has increased, so too have his critiques of public education.handbags louis vuitton At recent campaign events and in last Thursday’s debate, he called American public schools “big factories” left over from the Industrial Revolution and argued for decreasing federal and state roles in education. “Yes, the government can help,” he said at an event in Ohio. “But the idea that the federal government should be running schools, frankly much less that the state government should be running schools, is anachronistic.” Santorum is hardly the first presidential candidate to call for a decreased federal role in schools.fake louis vuitton shoes Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry before him called for abolishing the Department of Education, while Newt Gingrich has said he would dramatically shrink the department and remove all of the regulations it imposes. Mitt Romney is the only candidate left who has spoken favorably about the department; in 2007 he said he had come to see the value of having a federal role in education because it helped hold down the interests of the teachers’ unions by putting students and parents first. (He did suggest abolishing the Department of Education in the 1990s.) (MORE: How Santorum’s Scolding Is Dooming His Campaign) But few have been more openly critical of public education than Santorum, and his rhetoric often fails to match up with reality ?? and his own record.louis vuitton handbags for sale During his tenure in the Senate, Santorum voted for an increased federal role in schools and a larger budget for the Department of Education. Michael Tennant of the New American parsed his voting record and found that in addition to voting in favor of George W. Bush’s No Child Left Behind act, a vote Santorum now says he regrets, he voted in 2001 to increase federal funding for teacher testing and to up the Department of Education’s budget by $3.1 billion in 1996.louis vuitton belts Here are the three things Santorum apparently doesn’t know (or disregards) about public education: Presidents have not historically educated their kids at home. Santorum has said he would homeschool his children in the White House like, as he claims, most Presidents did in the first 150 years of the nation’s history. But as Andy Horowitz writes, of the very few Presidents who had school-age kids during their Administrations, most sent their children to public schools, military academies or private prep schools. Additionally, Thomas Jefferson was so wild about public education that he founded the University of Virginia, a public college, and said education should be available to all “without regard to wealth, birth or other accidental condition or circumstance.handbags louis vuitton Further, he wrote, “It is better such should be sought for and educated at the common expence [sic] of all, than that the happiness of all should be confided to the weak or wicked.” The federal role in public education isn’t enormous. For all Santorum’s desire to pull back federal education funding, it makes up only about 11% of all public-education spending. The vast majority of funds for education come from individual states and, to a lesser degree, local school boards.loui vuitton And while the federal money might be a small portion of school budgets, federal funding requirements play an important role. Historically, when left to their own devices, states have not always done a good job of educating their young people. Some states do it well, while others fall behind. Federal dollars ?? and the strings attached to them ?? are designed to ensure children can get the same quality of education whether they are born in Massachusetts or Mississippi.fake louis vuitton Homeschooling doesn’t work for everyone. Santorum hasn’t said he would push for homeschooling for all, but in criticizing public education while touting the fact that his seven kids are homeschooled, he seems to imply that it’s the better option. In Ohio, he even went as far as to say, “Parents educated their children because it’s their responsibility to educate their children.” That’s all well and good if you’re Santorum.louis vuitton outlet online He’s well off ?? having brought in $660,000 to $1.1 million in income in each of the past four years ?? which means his family could afford to have one parent stay home with the children or hire a tutor to come to the home. When he was a Senator, Santorum enrolled five of his children in an online charter school and had Pennsylvania taxpayers foot the $100,000 bill (creating an uproar so loud that he later withdrew them). (PHOTOS:?Political Pictures of the Week) Santorum also has a rich educational background to draw on, having attended Pennsylvania State University for his undergraduate degree and received an MBA from the University of Pittsburgh and a subsequent law degree from Penn State.loui vuitton (Both are publicly funded colleges, mind you.) But unlike Santorum, many parents do not have the educational background to teach their own kids. It’s still quite common for children to be more educated than their parents, particularly if they come from impoverished immigrant communities. (Santorum is himself a child of immigrants.replica gucci shoes) Since it is impossible to impart educational wisdom if you yourself are not educated, a broader-scale homeschooling system would only exacerbate educational inequality in the nation. Virtually no one ?? not even the most fervent education supporters ?? would claim that everything is going great today in America’s public-education system. Compared with other economically developed countries worldwide, students in the U.S.gucci outlet online are average at best. Despite its admirable intentions, teachers and administrators say No Child Left Behind set impossibly high standards, narrowed curriculums, forced educators to teach to the test and labeled far too many schools as “in need of improvement.” The Obama Administration is even giving out waivers to let states off the hook, in exchange for their adopting the Administration’s preferred set of education reforms. Yet the waivers are just a stopgap measure.gucci outlet online Whoever is elected President in 2012 will have the opportunity to preside over what could be the greatest change to federal education policy since NCLB was adopted in 2001 ?? should Congress decide to take up the task of reworking NCLB, which been due for reauthorization since 2007. Whoever that person is should have his facts straight about public education. Kayla Webley is a staff writer at TIME. Find her on Twitter at @kaylawebley, on Facebook or on Google+.ugg boots outlet You can also continue the discussion on TIME??s Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.
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2013年11月19日星期二

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Eight people in Iowa are the most important figures in American politics this morning, and I don’t mean the ones who are running for President.louis vuitton handbags for sale The eight folks who provided Mitt Romney’s margin of victory in the Iowa caucus??apparently in somewhere Clinton County (above)??may not have settled the Republican race, but they made for a late, suspenseful night in TV control rooms. Punch-drunk commentators stayed perched in cable-news studios last night like night owls at a Denny’s as the last few Iowa precincts trickled in, and this morning, reporters and analysts had to answer the question: what do we call this thing? Does it matter that Romney won by eight votes rather than losing by the same margin? Of course not: it’s a tiny fraction of a tiny overall vote, in one state out of 50, in a caucus that does not even actually award delegates. Also: it totally matters??at least in terms of how it played in the media and the optics in voters’ living rooms. Yes, the morning-after analysis is as muddled as the results, with the political press saying the primary fight could drag on and that the GOP is still deeply divided, even if Romney still looks best positioned to win.fake louis vuitton But had one slow-pitch softball team, minus the catcher, switched from Romney to Santorum, imagine the headlines this morning about how Romney fell this short after two tries in Iowa. And if your chief pitch to voters is that you’re the one who can win a general election, it makes a big difference to have your name in headlines and chyrons next to verbs like “win” and “beat.” That’s not to say Romney is in the clear this morning, though he made a triumphal, optimistic circuit of the network morning shows, but psychologically, that vote swing would have been a lot bigger than eight Iowans. But before we got to this morning, there was a long, nervewracking night in which political bureaus had to throw up their hands and admit they would need to wait for the votes to be counted.fake louis vuitton In some cases, on their own air. Probably the most memorable moment of a slaphappy news night came in the wee hours on CNN, when a precinct official called in to go over her numbers with John King and his wondrous scribbleboard, when the vote was so tight that a few votes could throw the contest to Romney or Santorum. (At one point she seemed annoyed when King noted that the totals she reported didn’t square with the official figures CNN had received: “Whaddya mean the numbers don’t add up!”) It was a great night for political drama junkies; at one point the margin narrowed to a single vote, flabbergasting anchors. But it also made for hours of spinning and premature conclusions, and way too many live shots of caucus officials collating paper.ugg boots outlet All the fancy graphics in the world couldn’t cover up the ad hoc nature of a developing vote-count story like this??at one point, Fox’s Bret Baier fumbled to figure out how to use his iPhone calculator to tally the margin. And sometimes, there weren’t even fancy graphics. Current TV had the political star power of its boss Al Gore??though oddly, not star anchor Keith Olbermann??but he was largely subdued on his own network as new host Cenk Uygur held forth, and the production showed that Current is still a bare-bones news operation. (The chief visual interest were big-screen TVs carrying other networks, so that Juan Williams seemed to be on Gore’s shoulder, talking into his ear.cheap gucci belts) If uncertainty breeds engaging election news, then the night was a success. Not only did the results take hours, but the interpretation, from network to network, was all over the place: it was a big victory for Santorum, or he would not be able to capitalize; Romney did what he had to do, or he couldn’t close the deal with his party; Ron Paul scored big by his share of the vote from 2008, or he disappointed by not quite winning; there were only three tickets out of Iowa, or Newt Gingrich would manage to squeeze in on someone’s lap. It was the kind of election night when Dan Rather and his close-vote Texan similes were sorely missed. But on CNN, Democratic analyst James Carville did manage to come up with my favorite new analogy for the GOP’s base’s reluctance to accept Romney: “It’s like trying to give a dog a pill.fake gucci shoes They keep spitting it out.” Plenty more doses yet to come, folks.
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Remember that narrow, 8-vote win Mitt Romney scored in the Iowa caucuses? The one that launched him on a 2-for-2 run in the first two GOP contests, building his momentum and underscoring his case as the inevitable nominee? Turns out it didn’t happen.fake uggs The final certified count in Iowa shows that it was indeed a close race??but that Rick Santorum came out ahead by 34 votes. The real winner, however, is still Mitt Romney??because for over two weeks he got the benefit of being described repeatedly in the media as the narrow “winner” of a caucus that journalists should have called a tie. And we’ll never know, but the difference it made may have been a hell of a lot more than a few votes. To explain why, let’s back up.chanel outlet Going into Iowa, Romney was doing well??Newt Gingrich, seen as his most serious national threat, was on a downslide??but the direction of the race was by no means certain. He was still having trouble expanding his voter base, and Santorum was gaining fast in polls. To compound matters, Romney had predicted victory the weekend going into the caucus, a news story that most people have probably forgotten, but??horserace coverage being what it is??would have played much bigger had the headline the next morning been his narrow loss. The morning after Iowa, the interpretation of the results was muddy, as the race was.replica gucci shoes Some analysts called the finish a relief for Romney, others a disappointing finish for Romney and a sign of strength for Santorum. Some initial news reports called the race essentially a tie??which is how it should have been described, because a result that close is well within the margin of error for an election of tens of thousands of votes. Indeed, within days, the result was in question, as a caucus participant charged that Romney was erroneously credited with 22 votes at a caucus site where he only got 2??which in itself would have been enough to swing the vote to Santorum. But there’s no recount process in the Iowa caucus; Santorum, for whatever reason, chose to be happy with the result and not press the case that he might have won; and the press corps had to move on and cover New Hampshire the next week.louis vuitton neverfull And however careful the reporting the morning after, eventually??in the thousands of passing references to Iowa in the political news afterward??the story cemented: Mitt Romney had won an important, if razor-thin victory. (All elections this size have a margin of error, by the way, and we’ll never know the precise, error-free vote total. The Iowa GOP reported in this case that eight precincts’ votes went missing. Theoretically they could have given Romney the margin??but probably not, as the New York Times’ Nate Silver notes, because Santorum handily led those caucus sites in the election-night counts.fake louis vuitton shoes) Romney was leading New Hampshire by a lot anyway, and he went on to win it. But might he have lost a few percentage points from the perception that he had been weakened after Iowa? Maybe. Maybe not. There’s no time machine, no alternate timeline we can visit.loui vuitton If he had lost a few points, though, suddenly we would have been looking at an entirely different narrative: Romney came up just short in Iowa, having gone all in with his campaign in the closing weeks. Then he underperformed in New Hampshire, a state next door to Massachusetts, which he should have won going away. Is he weakened? Instead, we got the narrative that we did. After New Hampshire, we stopped hearing so much about how Romney won Iowa by 8 votes.gucci outlet online We started hearing more about how he won the first two important contests of the primary. Over and over the statistic was repeated in passing: “No GOP candidate has ever won both states before… In short, Romney made history.” “Romney’s back-to-back-wins give him powerful momentum.” “No modern presidential candidate has ever won in Iowa and New Hampshire and failed to be crowned nominee.louis vuitton handbags for sale” The thing about primaries is that what matters is not just what you win. It’s the order in which you win (or lose), and the trajectory that is implied. How you do, or are perceived to have done, in one state affects how you do in the next, and so on. And arguably, in this election, this narrative is more important to Romney than any of his opponents.cheap gucci belts His major argument as a candidate, besides business experience, is electability: that is, the assumption by voters that he can get other voters to support him. An electability argument can be powerful, but it can also evaporate quickly after a loss. As I wrote the morning after Iowa: “If your chief pitch to voters is that you??re the one who can win a general election, it makes a big difference to have your name in headlines and chyrons next to verbs like ‘win’ and ‘beat.’” Now, political journalists could only report the results that they had.louis vuitton outlet online As of that morning after, the Iowa GOP said Romney was up 8 votes, so he was. But you only need a memory that goes back to 2000??if that far??to know that elections are subject to human error, miscounts, papers getting lost and found. Eight votes was certainly a slim enough margin that follow-up reports on Iowa should have described it as a tie, or a virtual tie, period??especially once reports began coming in of a possible overcount for Romney. I don’t see any bias here, in that there was any common desire among political reporters to credit Romney.replica louis vuitton (If anything, I’d have to think a primary junkie would want to see him weakened, simply for the prospect of a long primary battle, or, the holy grail, a brokered convention.) I do see a bias for a neat, short answer??a bias for the gist. Our system of political reporting doesn’t do well with nebulous results. It likes winners and losers, it likes to draw conclusions and go on to the next thing.louis vuitton belts So it did: so Romney “won” Iowa??and thus New Hampshire, and maybe South Carolina Saturday??until, apparently, for all we know, he lost it (or at least didn’t win it). Too late, probably, for the actual result to make any difference.
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To the foreign policy left, Obama is a turncoat who spoke out against the George W.fake uggs Bush Administration??s expansion of executive power during the 2008 campaign only to adopt some of Bush??s security-over-civil-liberties policies on taking office. To those on the right, Obama is a turncoat determined to cede American global preeminence to a combination of rising powers like China and India, and multilateral institutions like the United Nations. Obama gave both sides material to work with in his exclusive interview with TIME??s Fareed Zakaria on Wednesday. On the one hand, he used some of his strongest language to date to indicate his willingness to use force against Iran and al-Qaeda.gucci outlet online At the same time, he reiterated his belief that multilateral institutions like the United Nations and ASEAN are needed to help tackle problems America is incapable of handling by itself. Obama as much as said that if Iran does not accept the international community??s offer to allow them to pursue a peaceful nuclear power program within the constraints of non-proliferation treaties he will resort to military force. ??We will take every step available to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,?? Obama said. ??They can have peaceful nuclear power, as other countries do, subject to restrictions by the [nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty]… Can we guarantee that Iran takes the smarter path? No, which is why I??ve repeatedly said we don??t take any options off the table in preventing them from getting a nuclear weapon.louis vuitton shoes replica?? As for al-Qaeda, Obama is set on continuing his strikes against them in Afghanistan and in the ??safe havens?? in Pakistan, including the controversial use of drone strikes. ??We refocused attention on al-Qaeda, and they are badly wounded,?? Obama said. ??They??re not eliminated, but with the defeat not just of bin Laden but of most of the top leadership, the tightening noose around their safe havens, the incapacity for them to finance themselves ?? they??re much less capable than they were back in 2008… The counterterrorism strategy as applied to al-Qaeda has been extremely successful. The job??s not finished but there??s no doubt that we have severely degraded al-Qaeda??s capacity.gucci outlet online?? Obama struck a much more institutionalist tone when talking about China. China will ??inevitably?? become the world??s largest economy, if it isn??t already, Obama said. ??Assuming that they maintain stability and current growth patterns, then, yes, it??s inevitable. Even if they slow down somewhat, they??re so large that they??d probably end up being, just in terms of the overall size of the economy, the largest.louis vuitton outlet online?? So the U.S. must rally allies to convince the fast-growing power to adhere to international rules, Obama said. ??We??ve strengthened our alliances with Japan and South Korea,?? he said, and ??We have involved ourselves in the regional architecture, including organizations like ASEAN and APEC.louis vuitton shoes replica?? The message to China? ??What we??ve tried to say to them very clearly is: Look you guys have grown up… and in that context whether it??s maritime issues or trade issues, you can??t do whatever you think is best for you. You??ve got to play by the same rules as everybody else.?? But it??s not just in Asia that Obama believes the U.S.louis vuitton neverfull has to defer to alliances. ??Our participation in multilateral organizations has been extremely effective,?? he says. ??In the United Nations, not only do we have a voice but we have been able to shape an agenda.?? That??s designed to ??create a set of international rules and norms that everyone can follow and that everyone can benefit from,?? Obama says.chanel outlet ??It??s an American leadership that is??that recognizes the rise of countries like China and India and Brazil; it??s a U.S. leadership that recognizes our limits in terms of resources, capacity.?? Taken together, the interview provides rock-solid proof that Obama is a peace-loving, multilaterlist, war-mongering, American exceptionalist.louis vuitton shoes replica
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The Villages, Florida For a moment, as he gazed out at the gargantuan crowd gathered in brilliant sunshine, Newt Gingrich caught a glimpse of what might have been.gucci outlet online Gingrich arrived at this retirement enclave in central Florida, with its rippling palms and golf-cart gridlock, to a front runner’s welcome. These were Newt’s people. They waved signs and wore his stickers and fanned themselves with copies of a seniors’ magazine graced with Gingrich’s face over the tagline “The thinking conservative.” Feeding off the energy, Gingrich was in fine form, lobbing zingers that delighted a crowd convinced its country has fallen on fallow times.gucci handbag for sale He drew rapturous applause for his attacks on activist judges, the Washington??Wall Street cabal and a President who “bows” to foreign leaders. “I am, in fact, the legitimate heir to the Reagan movement, not some liberal from Massachusetts,” he said. It was vintage Gingrich. But Nasty Newt, the indignant insurgent who shook up the Republican presidential primary by storming to victory in South Carolina, has been missing in Florida for much of the past week.louis vuitton outlet online The bluster that marked his charge in the Palmetto State has dissipated as Mitt Romney has hit his stride. Hobbled by unfocused messaging and questionable campaign tactics, Gingrich appears headed for a blowout loss in the winner-take-all Florida primary on Tuesday, which could crush his hopes of emerging as the lone conservative foil to Romney. (PHOTOS: Newt Gingrich’s Life in Pictures) In a sense, the rivals have traded roles. Gingrich likes to contrast Romney’s timidity with his own swaggering style, but as the pair barnstormed through Florida, it was Gingrich who was oddly passive and flatfooted.gucci outlet online He griped about Romney’s scorched-earth takeover of the state’s airwaves, the debate audiences, the difficulty of debating an opponent who stretches the truth. (This from a candidate who on Sunday repeatedly called Romney a “pro-abortion, pro-gun-control, pro-tax-increase moderate.”) Gingrich wanted to position himself as a front runner who floats above the fray. But he is at his best as a bomb thrower, and he picked a bad week ?? as the Republican establishment rained down attacks questioning his constancy and character ?? to suddenly opt for the high road.louis vuitton neverfull “His path to victory is his message,” says Susan Auld, chairwoman of the Republican Party of Martin County, Florida. Gingrich’s message grew whiny as Romney’s took on a new edge. (MORE: Why Romney Is Winning Florida, and What Comes Next) Despite his momentum, Gingrich flew south facing considerable challenges. In Florida, the medium for the message is television.handbags louis vuitton The state has 10 expensive media markets, and Romney’s campaign ?? along with the super PAC supporting the former Massachusetts governor ?? unleashed a “carpet bombing,” as Gingrich put it, of negative ads outspending the Speaker’s campaign and super PAC by more than 4 to 1. The Gingrich campaign didn’t even buy TV time in the pricey precincts of South Florida. It was too expensive. “We are not a campaign of means,”?Gingrich spokesman R.cheap gucci beltsC. Hammond says, which is true even despite casino magnate Sheldon Adelson’s deep pockets. Gingrich’s ground game wasn’t sharp enough to neutralize Romney’s organizational advantages either. Heading into Florida, says Hammond, the campaign identified the components of a coalition they believed could carry them to a Sunshine State victory: Hispanics, Zionist Jews, disgruntled former employees of the hollowed-out aeronautics industry, Tea Party members and conservatives in the state’s southwest and panhandle.louis vuitton outlet online It was an exercise in microtargeting. To compensate for his campaign’s comparatively meager resources, Gingrich tried to cobble together a coalition by tailoring his speeches to fit the fears and fantasies of each group. (MORE:?With Gingrich on the Trail in Florida, Romney Surrogates Are Never Far Behind) In Miami, he talked about Puerto Rican statehood and the prospects of a “Cuban spring” on the horizon. In Delray Beach, he stressed the threat posed by an Iranian nuclear weapon.gucci handbag for sale On the Space Coast, he made his now infamous pledge to establish a lunar colony by the end of his second term. On Saturday he told a liberty forum in Winter Park that the stem-cell debate amounted to “the use of science to justify desensitizing the society to killing babies,” and on Sunday he visited a Baptist megachurch outside Orlando on “Sanctity of Life Day.” He has mostly ignored the panhandle,? though he will make the trek there as part of a Monday fly-around on his last full day of campaigning. Nor has he spent much time on the critical I-4 corridor that connects Tampa and Orlando.handbags louis vuitton Jose Mallea, Gingrich’s state director, says the campaign, which includes 14 Florida staffers spread across eight offices, has completed a voter-identification drive and will launch a turnout operation on Monday that includes 150,000 phone calls by volunteers. “We have a good ground game,” he says, albeit one that has been active for just four weeks. Romney, by contrast, has been organizing in the state for months and had already pumped more ad money into Florida by the time the candidates arrived than Gingrich had spent in total. Meanwhile, Gingrich has suffered from iffy scheduling and advance.louis vuitton backpack for sale A Hispanic town hall on Saturday in Orlando was downgraded to a meet and greet when poor turnout left a cavernous church mostly empty. On Sunday, Gingrich traveled more than 200 miles by bus for one rally and a pair of church visits, neither of which he spoke at. In the end, Gingrich could lose each of the key constituencies his campaign identified. In a recent NBC News/Marist poll, which shows Romney outpacing Gingrich 42% to 27%, the former Massachusetts governor boasts sizable leads among men and (particularly) women as well as Evangelical Christians.handbags louis vuitton The two are in a virtual tie for the Tea Party vote. “His numbers have been steadily dropping in our polls,” says Sal Russo, the unaffiliated chief strategist of the Tea Party Express. In a state where some 1 in 10 Republican voters is Latino, an ABC News/Univision survey found Romney holding a 26-point lead among Hispanics, including a 32-point edge among those of Cuban descent, despite Gingrich’s aggressive courtship of Hispanic voters in the Miami area and Romney’s more conservative stance on immigration. A Tampa Bay Times/Miami Herald poll released on Sunday showed Romney up 26 points in the southeastern portion of the state.louis vuitton neverfull Floridians seem split on why Gingrich has faltered. Kelley Howard, the owner of an agriculture business in Eustis, Fla., says Gingrich was unable to dispel the cloud created by Romney’s ads. “People see Tom Brokaw??s face, and they say this must be true,” she says, referring to a Romney ad featuring footage of Brokaw recounting the resolution of Gingrich’s ethics charges.chanel outlet “He had a weak performance in the debates,” says Tom Joseph, a former State Department employee from Citrus County. “Romney’s done better research.” Jean Brewer, a resident of the Villages and a member of the Tricounty Tea Party, blamed the media. “We just want to take our country back,” she says, invoking the movement’s signature clich辿.fake ugg boots By the weekend, Gingrich was speaking the Tea Party’s language again, delivering rousing speeches to enthusiastic crowds. Nasty Newt was back. Meeting with reporters on Sunday, he fell back on the talking points that worked in South Carolina: nominating a “Massachusetts moderate” who crafted the template for Obama’s health care bill would be a disaster for a party desperate to dispatch Obama back to Chicago. In the Villages, Gingrich was pithy, charging that Obama had shifted his slogan from “Yes we can” to “Why we couldn’t,” and he spoke passionately about the decline of the American Dream.louis vuitton backpack for sale Electricity coursed through the crowd of about 5,000, and the Speaker looked energized. If only more Floridians had gotten the chance to see this version of Gingrich from the start.
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Florida moves out of sight for Gingrich, who’s down?10 or 15 points in the latest polls.louis vuitton handbags for sale His campaign is spinning the loss and Newt might just fight out the rest of the race on bile alone. He is promising Administration posts left and right. How Romney’s team scrambled to sink Gingrich–again. (For one, they outspent him by $12 million.louis vuitton neverfull) Why budget directors make bad presidential candidates. The Sunlight Foundation on the lessons of SOPA lobbying fight. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren can both be a little tone-deaf on wealth. Traders at Freddie have been making big bets that Americans won’t be able to refinance their mortgages.handbags louis vuitton And Mitt Romeny is rich.
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Pompano Beach, Florida A political riddle presents itself on the trail with Mitt Romney: Can a true man of character constantly attack the character of another man? From the first introductions on Sunday, character was presented as the defining, most winning attribute of the former governor: Romney was touted as the candidate whose moral qualities are most developed, whose forthrightness is most apparent.louis vuitton handbags for sale Meanwhile, the Romney camp has been sending a steady stream of attack ads, surrogates and snarky quips into the world, hoping to undermine Newt Gingrich once and for all. ??He??s honest. He??s fair,?? said Florida Rep. Connie Mack, as he introduced Romney at a morning rally in Naples.gucci handbag for sale ??This is a man who has lived his life, every step of his life, honestly, with integrity and character.?? This is the same Mack who showed up on Gingrich??s turf Saturday and scuffled with the Speaker??s press secretary. At the Speaker??s event, Mack reminded attendees and reporters of Freddie Mac??the institution, Romney insinuated throughout Sunday, that Gingrich was paid oodles to promote just so it could push Florida mortgages into forecloseure. (MORE:?Why Romney is Winning Florida and What Comes Next) Former Florida Senator Connie Mack III took the mic after his son.louis vuitton belts The reason he supports Romney, first and foremost? ??He??s a man of character,?? he said. ??Under attack, under challenge, he responds as a cool, calm, collected man, a person that we need in the White House.?? (After the rally, Mack Sr. told TIME he thought Romney would carry the state by as much as 12 points, numbers that reflect leads from polls conducted over the weekend.louis vuitton replica) A calm, cool Romney then spoke and within 30 seconds, he was mocking Gingrich, likening his opponent to Goldilocks: Gingrich said the audience in the first debate was too quiet, and too loud in the second. ??It has to be juuuust so,?? Romney said. ??If we fail in debates or we fail to get the support of people, it??s time to look in the mirror.?? Assaults on Gingrich??s ability to lead and his history of ??influence peddling?? continued throughout the day, as Romney drew a picture of a grasping, flawed man overstaying his welcome in the Sunshine State.chanel handbags for sale (PHOTOS:?The Rich History of Mitt Romney) Many attendees at the events picked up the refrain. ??He??s a gentleman,?? said a 79-year-old independent voter, when asked what she most liked about Romney. ??He comes with no baggage. He??s a straight-forward guy, married a lot of years.louis vuitton belts No problems. He??s not gonna be chasin?? women around the White House,?? said Roy Bartlett, an engineer who migrated south from Pittsburgh. Romney may not have the same problems and personal baggage as twice-divorced, gaffe-prone Gingrich, but he has plenty of political baggage: flip-flops on gay rights, cap and trade, gun laws and abortion. In a floundering moment at an afternoon rally in Haileah, Florida, Rep.fake uggs Ileana Ros-Lehtinen attempted to counter ads aimed at Romney??s pro-life credentials. ??Romney is a wonderful new believer, for a while now,?? she said emphatically, if a little off message. One senior Romney aide said the campaign was pushed into its offensive state after Gingrich launched more personal affronts. The most character-damning ads in recent weeks attacked Romney??s record at Bain Capital, portraying him as a heartless businessman with no consideration for those who might lose livelihoods while he gained profits.fake uggs ??The idea that Newt Gingrich would launch a character attack against Mitt Romney is particularly offensive,?? says senior adviser Stuart Stevens. ??There are certain things you don’t let go unanswered.” So they have been responding in-kind. On Sunday morning, the campaign released a web video called ??Credits,?? which runs the names of all members of Congress who had voted to reprimand Gingrich when he was Speaker.louis vuitton handbags for sale (Point being: It??s a long list.) This followed an ad released on Friday that featured Tom Brokaw as the messenger; in 1997 footage from NBC Nightly News, he tells of the investigation into ethics violations and Gingrich’s tenuous role as the head of the House. Romney approved the message, but Brokaw was not a willing surrogate. NBC News asked the campaign to pull down the spot.fake uggs Still, by objecting to the ad, NBC made sure it would be run many more times on the news, at no cost to the Romney camp. Watching television on Saturday night, Floridians could have seen other attack ads from the Romney campaign followed by even more from his allies’ super PAC, Restore Our Future. ??This type of thing happens in almost every campaign. People deal with it and they kind of move on,?? the elder Mack said when asked about the negative tone Romney had been taking.louis vuitton backpack for sale ??If he gets blowback, everybody gets blowback.?? The everybody??s-doing-it defense is an easy one. There is an assumption, among many voters and politicians alike, that going negative in ads (and elsewhere) is a necessary evil. ??I don??t like any of them.gucci handbag for sale They sound so desperate,?? said Marilyn Zimmerman, a retiree who attended the morning rally. ??Probably most candidates don??t want to do it, but it??s such an accepted political practice now.?? On Monday morning, the day before Florida’s primary, a Quinnipiac University poll found Romney leading Gingrich by 14 points. People were surveyed over the weekend, meaning they may well have seen the barrage that started last week and continued through at least Sunday.chanel handbags for sale Update, 9:45 a.m.: Just as Romney started to let up on Gingrich at an event in Jacksonville on Monday morning, aiming his barbs almost entirely at Obama in his speech, the Gingrich team finally got into the surrogate game. Newt man Rick Tyler, of the Gingrich-allied super PAC Winning Our Future, arrived at the Romney rally.chanel outlet He said he came of his own accord and ran toward reporters to berate Romney for his negative campaigning. Noting Romney’s team had outspent them 5-to-1, Tyler seemed fed up. “Romney has proved to be a disgraceful and despicable candidate,” he said, citing the attacks on Gingrich’s time at Freddie Mac and the conditions under which he resigned as Speaker. “He has no character.louis vuitton backpack for sale” “There’s nothing people don’t know about Newt,” he said. He also said that people don’t know the truth about Newt. But it’s likely too late for surrogate protests about the details of Gingrich’s history to make much difference with Florida voters heading to the polls tomorrow.
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In his State of the Union address on Tuesday night, President Obama “put colleges and universities on notice.chanel handbags for sale” Find a way to stop tuition from going up, he told them, or risk losing federal aid money. Following up on that charge, Obama put forward a proposal on Friday at the University of Michigan that, if passed, would tie federal campus-based aid programs to tuition policies for the first time in history. Under the plan, the Administration would shift aid away from those colleges that fail to keep tuition down in favor of institutions that “do their fair share” to keep tuition affordable. The plan would achieve this by targeting campus-based aid programs??work-study programs, Perkins loans and supplemental grants for low-income students??which accounted for $3 billion of the $142 billion distributed in federal grants and loans annually.louis vuitton outlet online The plan proposed increasing that total to $10 billion next year. (MORE: Obama’s State of the Union: An Optimistic President Talks to a Pessimistic Nation) Obama targeted campus-based aid programs, rather than much larger federal aid programs like Pell grants and Stafford loans, because those programs give money to students who can use it at any college, whereas Perkins loans go directly to colleges, where administrators can use the money as they see fit. The plan also outlined a Race to the Top-style competition in which states would compete for $1 billion in prize money, a separate $55 million award for colleges that increase their efficiency, called for a doubling of work-study jobs and materials that will help families determine the true cost of college. The President also called on Congress to extend the interest rate reduction on subsidized Stafford loans as well as the opportunity tax credit, a $2,500 per year tax credit for working families with students who attend college.loui vuitton (PHOTOS:?Obama??s State of the Union in Pictures) Incentivizing colleges to lower tuition sounds like a great thing on its face. College students are now taking on more debt than ever to compensate for tuition costs that are increasing twice as fast as inflation??even faster than health care costs. But at the same time, state funding for higher ed has just sustained record-high cutbacks. According to the annual Grapevine report from the Center for the Study of Education Policy at Illinois State University, 41 states cut funding for higher education in response to the slow economic recovery and the end of federal stimulus funds last year.chanel handbags for sale Overall, in the past year alone, state funding for higher ed decreased by nearly 8%, or $6 billion. As state money declines, many have said the only way for colleges to compensate is for students to foot more of the bill. But if Obama’s plan were to pass, raising tuition wouldn’t be an option if states wanted to receive part of the $10 billion in proposed federal aid. Some higher ed experts fear the plan would force colleges to trade quality for price.cheap gucci belts In the four years since the 2008 financial crisis, many institutions have made the easy cuts. They’ve consolidated campuses, cut programs with low-enrollment, scaled back administrative costs and increased energy efficiency. The options that remain??trimming financial aid, reducing enrollment, increasing class size, cutting back on the number of classes, using adjunct instructors instead of full-time faculty and postponing maintenance projects??can hurt students. Some are taking these steps anyway.fake louis vuitton (MORE:?Obama Calls for ??Fairness?? in His Address to ??Stronger?? Union) Maybe institutions are just going to have to get more creative. “Colleges and universities have got to realize this is a long-term problem and we can’t just get all the money from students,” says Joni Finney, professor of higher education at the University of Pennsylvania and the vice president of the non-profit, non-partisan National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education. “Now is the time to think about doing business in unusual ways.” Finney advocates for some lesser-used options for reducing costs, including cutting non-effective programs, using technology more effectively, streamlining curricula so students don’t graduate with more credits than they need (which is common today), upping the number of hours faculty teach, making better use of evenings, weekends and summers, and offering three-year degree programs to well-prepared students.ugg boots outlet Still, even with changes on campus, Finney agrees with Obama that states must maintain their commitment to higher ed. “States can’t continue to cut,” she says. “They’ve turned to higher ed to make cuts because they knew colleges had another revenue source: tuition, but they can’t continue to rely on that or there will be a tipping point where college enrollment goes down because no one can afford it.” Which is exactly what Obama is trying to avoid.fake louis vuitton “Higher education is not a luxury,” the President said in his speech at the University of Michigan. “It’s an economic imperative that every family in America should be able to afford.” But as Congress must approve nearly all of the aspects of the President’s plan, the question remains as to whether colleges and universities will be forced to meet his call. Kayla Webley is a Staff Writer at TIME.chanel handbags for sale Find her on Twitter at @kaylawebley, on Facebook or on Google+. You can also continue the discussion on TIME??s Facebook page and on Twitter at @TIME.
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